A regional Centre of Excellence for climate and atmosphere research in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region.
This study evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model’s ability to simulate summer urban heat island (UHI) effects across the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) using a simple bulk urban parameterization. WRF downscales ERA-Interim reanalysis data at 16 km and nested 4 km resolutions for 2000–2002. Model biases show overestimation of maximum air temperatures (+1–2°C) and underestimation of minimums (−1–2°C) against ERA5-Land, with larger land surface biases, though 16 km performs better than 4 km when validated against station and satellite observations (possibly due to the lack of model physics optimization in the highest resolution). Detailed analysis for Cairo reveals nighttime
air/surface UHIs of 3–5°C and daytime surface cool islands of 5–10°C, driven by urban-rural contrasts in albedo, soil moisture, and heat storage. Averaged across 11 EMME cities, results indicate stronger nighttime surface UHIs (5–6°C) than air UHIs (3–4°C), with pronounced daytime surface cool islands (−12.5°C) and minor canopy heat islands (1–1.5°C). The results indicate the suitability of the simple urban model treatment for multi-city regional climate change assessments in the EMME region.