Air pollution is still one of Europe’s biggest health threats; additional measures are needed to safeguard the well-being of the population in a changing climate, new study from The Cyprus Institute finds.

Researchers from the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C) of The Cyprus Institute contributed to a new study examining how future climate change, air pollution, and demographic developments may interact to influence health outcomes across Europe. The findings highlight that improvements in air quality alone may not be sufficient to reduce future health impacts, underlining the need for coordinated climate, environmental, and public health policies.

The researchers evaluated future health risks associated with fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution across Europe under different climate and socio-economic scenarios. Their findings show that PM2.5 levels are expected to decline significantly in the medium term (up to 2040-2050), mainly due to ongoing and planned air pollution control policies. As a result, excess mortality linked to air pollution is projected to decrease in the near future across all scenarios.

However, the study also shows that long-term trends may differ significantly depending on future development pathways. Under a fossil-fuel-intensive scenario, excess mortality is projected to rise after 2050, potentially reaching 808,000 annual deaths by 2100, approximately double current levels. The researchers highlight that demographic changes, particularly population ageing and urbanisation, are expected to play an increasingly important role in shaping future health risks.

As part of the study activities, the researchers also developed a policy brief highlighting the importance of integrated climate and air quality policies, as climate change may offset gains achieved through air pollution control measures. The policy brief also stresses the need for urban planning and public health strategies that address increasing exposure in growing cities, while supporting adaptation measures targeting vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly.

According to the researchers: “Europe’s future health burden from air pollution will depend not only on emissions reductions but also on broader socio-economic and climate trajectories. Sustainable development pathways can significantly reduce excess mortality, whereas fossil-fuel-driven economic growth may reverse progress and substantially increase health risks. A combined policy approach touching climate, environmental, and public health is needed to ensure the well-being of the population.”

This study and Policy Brief were conducted in the frame of the ACCREU (Assessing Climate Change Risk in Europe) project funded by the Horizon Europe programme. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.