Decarbonization Observatory: target-based global and national scenarios

Countries around the world will revise their national climate targets by the end of 2025 to be consistent with the 1.5 °C warming target of the Paris Agreement. On the other hand, there are challenges in implementing existing targets to national policies, which could lead to a delay in achieving the targets and possibly a rollback of existing national targets.

On the Decarbonization Observatory, users can explore ways of enhancing and delaying target(s) by selecting pledges globally or for a country. Their impacts on the greenhouse gas emission and global-mean temperature pathways will be presented in different colors. Further details can be found here.

Impacts of enhanced and delayed national pledges on the emission and temperature pathways

The impacts of enhanced pledges are shown relative to the low reference scenario (lower dashed line) based on the current conditional national targets contingent on external support.
The impacts of delayed pledges are shown relative to the high reference scenario (higher dashed line) based on the current unconditional national targets.

See the impact on
Emissions
Temperature
Country
Type of pledges
Enhanced
Delayed
Add one or more pledge(s)LUF pledges can not be added at once
Select all
Select none
Reference
Description to add
NDC01
10% stronger near-term targets
GMP01
GMP for member countries
GMP02
GMP for non-member countries + further 30% CH4 reductions by 2100
CH4++
GMP to non-member countries + further 40% CH4 reductions by 2035
N2O++
13% N2O reduction by 2030 + 18% N2O reduction by 2035
LTS01
Non-net-zero countries reach net-zero in 2070.
LTS02
Post-2050 net-zero countries reach net-zero in 2050.
LTS03
2050 net-zero countries reach net-zero in 2040.
LTS05
All net-zero countries follow GHG net-zero.
LUF01
No deforestation + current reforestation + 100% control of degradation
LUF02
Less deforestation + current reforestation + 50% control of degradation
LUF03
Current deforestation + more reforestation + 10% control of degradation
Descriptions of enhanced and delayed pledges (shorter descriptions available at the question marks beside pledges)

  • 2030+: Strengthen the current near-term targets (conditional) by 10%
  • 2030-: Weaken the current near-term targets (unconditional) by 10%

  • CH4+: Implement the Global Methane Pledge (GMP) to current member countries (30% CH4 reduction by 2030 relative to 2020)
  • CH4++: Implement the GMP to current non-member countries and achieve further 30% CH4 reductions by 2100
  • CH4++: Implement the GMP to current non-member countries and achieve further 40% CH4 reductions by 2035 (relative to 2022)
  • N2O+: Achieve 13% and 18% N2O reduction by 2030 and 2035, respectively (relative to 2022)

  • Zero2070: Countries currently having no long-term target reach net-zero in 2070.
  • Zero2050: Countries currently having a net-zero target after 2050 reach net-zero in 2050.
  • Zero2040: Countries currently having a net-zero target in 2050 reach net-zero in 2040.
  • Zero-10yrs: Countries currently having a net-zero target delay it by 10 years.
  • ZeroGHG: Countries currently with a net-zero target follow a net-zero GHG.
  • ZeroCO2: Countries currently with a net-zero target follow a net-zero CO2 only.

  • LUF+++: Stop deforestation + continue reforestation at current levels + 100% control of forest degradation
  • LUF++: Partially control deforestation + continue reforestation at current levels + 50% control of forest degradation
  • LUF+: Continue deforestation at current levels + increasing reforestation + 10% control of forest degradation

    • Certain emissions can be reduced by more than one pledge. This means that pledges can overlap each other. This panel shows the combined impact of selected pledges, as pledges are added one by one in the order of the list. The overlaps are taken into account but are not explicitly shown. The overlaps between different pledges can be explored in the next panel.

    Read more
    The reference scenarios are developed using the latest near-term and mid-century targets collected from the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the Long-Term Strategies (LTSs) available at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) website (cut-off date: 13 December 2023).

    This website is part of our simple, transparent framework for developing emission and temperature scenarios by country. The emission and temperature data are publicly available in spreadsheets, with all assumptions explicitly stated. Temperature calculations are based on a simple yet well-established method that can be traced back in the spreadsheet.

    It is important to note that our future scenarios are intended to be used to explore the emission and temperature outcomes of national targets. Future scenarios therefore only consider historical emissions and national climate targets as stated in NDCs and LTSs, without taking into account other aspects, such as the long-term changes in population and global domestic production, and also without interpretating their actual feasibility.

    If you have any questions, please contact: katsumasa.tanaka at lsce.ipsl.fr, kushal.tibrewal at lsce.ipsl.fr, olivier.boucher at ipsl.fr, and philippe.ciais at lsce.ipsl.fr

    Acknowledgments: Horizon Europe Edu4Climate project (N° 101071247), Horizon 2020 EMME-CARE project (N° 856612), and French ANR PRATO project (MOPGA program; ANR-19-MPGA-0008)

    Comparison of enhanced and delayed national pledges

    This panel compare pledges on the same basis by explicitly showing the overlaps between pledges.

    See the impact on
    Emissions
    Temperature
    Country
    Reference scenario
    Unconditional near-term targets and net-zero targets
    Conditional near-term targets and net-zero targets
    Select one or more pledge(s)
    Select all
    Select none
    CH4++
    GMP to non-member countries + further 40% CH4 reductions by 2035
    N2O++
    13% N2O reduction by 2030 + 18% N2O reduction by 2035
    GMP01
    GMP for member countries
    GMP02
    GMP for non-member countries + further 30% CH4 reductions by 2100
    LTS01
    Non-net-zero countries reach net-zero in 2070.
    LTS02
    Post-2050 net-zero countries reach net-zero in 2050.
    LTS03
    2050 net-zero countries reach net-zero in 2040.
    LTS04
    Net-zero countries delay net-zero by 10 years.
    LTS05
    All net-zero countries follow GHG net-zero.
    LTS06
    All net-zero countries follow CO2 net-zero.
    LUF01
    No deforestation + current reforestation + 100% control of degradation
    LUF02
    Less deforestation + current reforestation + 50% control of degradation
    LUF03
    Current deforestation + more reforestation + 10% control of degradation
    NDC01
    10% stronger near-term targets
    NDC02
    10% weaker near-term targets
    NoGMP
    Description to add
    selMIT
    Description to add
    [Placeholder]
    Read more
    [Placeholder]

    Historical and future emission pathway with current national pledges

    [Placeholder]

    Country
    Historical emissions
    Show historical emissions
    Reference scenario
    Unconditional near-term targets and net-zero targets
    Conditional near-term targets and net-zero targets
    Bound
    Upper bound
    Lower bound
    Sectors
    Energy; Industrial Processes; Solvent and Other Product Use; Agriculture
    Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)
    Total
    Greenhouse gases
    CO2eq
    CH4
    CO2
    N2O
    [Placeholder]
    Read more
    [Placeholder]

    Historical and future temperature pathway with current national pledges

    [Placeholder]

    Reference scenario
    Unconditional near-term targets and net-zero targets
    Conditional near-term targets and net-zero targets
    Paris agreement targets
    [Placeholder]
    Read more
    [Placeholder]